The Scottish referendum: Bookies had been predicting an 80 percent chance of a ‘no’ vote, although the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies know the results associated with the Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure appears that way.

Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 % of voters determining against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was because wide as 10 percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to phone and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions had been split straight down the middle.

The simple truth is, polls were all over the place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote in the weeks leading up to the referendum. And although they certainly were properly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day, they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ triumph.

Margins of Error

Perhaps Not the bookies, though. That they had it all figured out ages ago. Whilst the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online activities betting outfit Betfair had already determined to spend bettors who had their cash on a’no’ vote several times ahead of the referendum even occurred. And while there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from a position of supreme confidence, because the markets that are betting rating the likelihood of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the least a week before the vote happened. It had been a forecast that, unlike that of the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead as much as the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable in comparison with the gambling areas, and just why is the news in such thrall with their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling companies freely admit that their studies are inaccurate, often advising that we have to enable a margin of error, commonly around five percent. Which means that in a closely fought race, such since the Scottish referendum, their info is utterly worthless. In a race where one party, based on the polls, is leading by, say, 52 per cent, the presence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that study useless.

The questions that are wrong

There are many factors that make polls unreliable, too many, in reality, to record here. Sometimes the sample size of participants is simply too low, or it’s unrepresentative of the populace. Sometimes they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are dishonest or sloppy about recording information. Nevertheless the ultimate, prevailing explanation why polls fail is which they usually ask the wrong question. Instead of asking people whom they will vote for, they should be asking the relevant question that the bookies constantly ask: ‘Who you think will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers shows that this question yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also think on the opinions of those around them, and perhaps also since it may yield more honest answers.’

Dishonest Answers

In a situation such as the Scottish referendum, where there exists a big and popular movement for change, those interviewed by pollsters tend to be more likely to state their support for change, while curbing their concerns about the feasible negative consequences. When expected about a problem on the location, it’s easier to express the perceived view that is popular. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might express the appealing idea of severing ties with a remote and unpopular government in Westminster, but in addition means uncertainty and feasible economic chaos.

As Wolfers claims, ‘There is really a historical tendency for polling to overstate the chance of success of referendums, possibly because we are more prepared to share with pollsters we will vote for change than to actually do so. Such biases are less inclined to distort polls that ask individuals who they think will win. Indeed, in offering their expectations, some respondents may even reflect on whether or not they believe current polling.

In short, when asked whether they’d vote for an independent Scotland, a significant quantity of Scots apparently lied. Gamblers, having said that, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close After Wynn Everett License Choose

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has fallen by 40 per cent in the past few years. Now the selection of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino license has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image: bloodhorse.com)

Suffolk Downs, the historic horseracing that is thoroughbred in East Boston, is to close, officials have established. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the sole East Massachusetts casino license due to their Wynn Everett project, that will see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring an unlikely casino repeal vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the very first casualty of this week’s selection procedure. In favoring the Wynn bid over that of the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the final nail into the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in hawaii. Suffolk is one of just two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, together with only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort would be to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in https://real-money-casino.club/slots-of-vegas-online-casino/ Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at the least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better potential to produce jobs and start up new avenues of revenue for the state. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the announcement that the track will never find a way to continue immediately after the Gaming Commission’s decision was made general public.

End of the Track

‘we have been extraordinarily disappointed as this step is likely to cost the Commonwealth several thousand jobs, small company and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We shall be fulfilling with employees and horsemen over the next several times to mention how we wind down racing operations, as a 79-year legacy of Thoroughbred rushing in Massachusetts will be coming to a finish, ensuing in unemployment and uncertainty for many hardworking individuals.’

The industry has been hit by way of a 40 per cent reduction in recent years and Suffolk’s closure is likely to impact hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others whom make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The need to safeguard Suffolk Downs was one of many primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the choice to go with Wynn has angered people.

‘Today’s decision to award the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents away from work,’ stated Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could minimize the jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Rich History

Many industry workers feel betrayed by politicians and the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so very hard to get that gaming bill passed with the indisputable fact that it was going to save your self the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and supervisor of the breeding farm, who added that the ruling would ‘probably almost … put all of the farms like mine out of company.’

Suffolk Downs opened in 1935, right after parimutuel betting had been legalized in the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap here, breaking the track record along the way. The race was attended by 40,000 individuals. Through the years, the track has hosted races featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert right here on the track’s infield in front of 24,000 fans that are screaming.

Fundamentally, though, a rich history wasn’t sufficient to save your self Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill that was designed to rescue this famous old racetrack seemingly have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Just Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

Is Donald Trump intent on saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And can he?

The word from The Donald is he says he’s exactly what AC has been missing all these years that he can, and what’s more. As the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors this week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment prepared to file for bankruptcy, the billionaire real property mogul announced that he’s ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt.

Expected by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would step in to save lots of The Trump Plaza and its own at-risk sister property, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what happens. It. if I can help the people of Atlantic City we’ll do’

Later on, on Twitter, and clearly warming to his theme, Trump stated: ‘we left Atlantic City years ago, good timing. Now we may buy back, at lower expense, to save your self Plaza & Taj. They were run poorly by funds!’

Trump was hugely critical of his former business Trump Entertainment in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, maybe catching wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched appropriate procedures to have his name eliminated through the casinos in an attempt to protect his brand, of which he’s hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City numerous years back,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall under an utter state of disrepair and have otherwise failed to work and manage the casino properties in accordance with the high standards of quality and luxury required under the license contract.’

Trump left the nj-new jersey casino industry in ’09, and Trump Entertainment was bought out by a group of hedge fund managers and bondholders that are corporate who were allowed to retain the brand name in return for a 10 percent ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized business. He has already established nothing regarding the gambling enterprises’ day-to-day operations ever since then.

‘Does anybody notice that Atlantic City lost its magic after I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It is indeed unfortunate to see just what has occurred to Atlantic City. Therefore many decisions that are bad the pols over time: airport, convention center, etc.’

In the early ’80s, Trump embarked for a project that is joint getaway Inn and Harrahs to build the Holiday Inn Casino resort. It absolutely was completed in 1984, and he promptly bought out his company partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the first casino he ever owned, and this week it closed. Could it be that the notoriously cold-blooded property developer has a sentimental side? Or perhaps is it, simply, as many folks think, that he can’t resist some publicity that is good?

Promotion Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) believes in the explanation that is latter.

‘Donald is just a guy who likes to see his title within the paper,’ he said. ‘He’s never ever been shy about looking for publicity or getting publicity. The question is whether this is more promotion for Donald or whether he’s intent on coming back to Atlantic City in a way that is real. We are going to see later on. Is Donald Trump seeking to get some publicity, or perhaps is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and compose some checks.’

‘I can see Donald’s ego wanting him to come back as a savior,’ consented consultant that is gaming Norton. ‘ I don’t think Donald’s name would help the casinos that much,’ he stated. ‘Our problem is, other casinos have exposed up and take off traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, so that as if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on the top of this Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to put his money where their mouth is?

Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum


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March 5th, 2020


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